Dubai: The Middle East region will require over 3,800 new passenger aircraft in the next 20 years according to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast (GMF). A doubling in the propensity to travel by air, increasing urbanisation and major aviation investments continue to strengthen the region's position as a global aviation hub. The forecast includes demand for 2,160 single-aisle and 1,670 widebody aircraft by 2045.
The outlook reflects strong market confidence even amidst current disruption to the industry, with existing Middle East large single-aisle backlogs already representing 45% of the region's total 20-year demand. Passenger traffic from, to and within the Middle East is expected to grow at a 4.7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the forecast period, more than doubling by 2045.
“The Middle East is one of the world's most dynamic aviation markets with regional carriers demonstrating operational resilience despite geopolitical volatility,” said Gabriel Semelas, President of Airbus Africa and Middle East. “Driven by demographic expansion, rising prosperity, and major infrastructure investment, airlines are expanding and modernising their fleets while guiding the transition toward more efficient and sustainable air transport.”
Growth will be driven by a combination of rising disposable income, an increase in urbanisation to 55% of the population as well as an additional 240 million middle-class to reach 620 million in all. Trips per capita are expected to more than double across major markets by 2045, with Saudi Arabia increasing from 1.6 trips per person per year in 2025 to 4.0 in 2045, while in the UAE it’ll increase from 3.1 to 6.5 trips per person over the same period.
At the same time, multi-billion-dollar investments in developing airlines, regional giga-projects and airport infrastructure are shifting the region's aviation centre of gravity, creating new hubs for connectivity and supporting long-term growth across the aviation ecosystem.
The forecast indicates that by 2035, 97% of the Middle East fleet will comprise new-generation aircraft, compared with 45% in 2025, reflecting one of the fastest fleet modernisation rates globally. This transition will deliver significant gains in fuel efficiency, operating performance and emissions reduction.
The region is also expected to play an increasingly important role in the future of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Supported by sovereign investment strategies and ambitious aviation agendas, Middle Eastern carriers and stakeholders are positioning themselves to become global hubs for future SAF production, helping accelerate the industry's long-term sustainability goals.
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